Category: Insights

This week’s headlines delivered a sharp mix of geopolitical tension, corporate reshuffling, and AI disruption. On the macro front, Trump extended the U.S.-Iran cease-fire at Pakistan’s request but kept the Hormuz naval blockade in place, leaving Tehran’s role in renewed talks uncertain as maritime tensions rise. Meanwhile, UPS, FedEx, and DHL began seeking refunds tied…

Oil plunged over 10% as Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz during an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, lifting broader peace hopes, though ING warned 13 million barrels per day remain disrupted. The hope that the Middle East conflict may be nearing an end helped power a stock rally, alongside strong bank earnings and upbeat CEO comments,…

Markets are navigating a volatile mix of sticky inflation, geopolitics, and corporate restructuring. Core PCE inflation held at 3% (headline 2.8%), above the Federal Reserve target, with the Fed’s March minutes showing a willingness for rate hikes. Oil markets swung sharply, with WTI down 16% to $93.98 on Tuesday after President Trump announced a two-week Iran ceasefire, though uncertainty persists as reports…

Markets moved sharply on Thursday after President Trump said in a nationally televised address on Wednesday night that the U.S. would hit Iran “extremely hard” within the next two to three weeks, pushing oil sharply higher, with Brent settling up 7.8% at $109.03 and WTI rising 11.4% to $111.54, and reigniting stagflation and delayed rate-cut…

March captured record capital formation alongside expanding government adoption and a faster infrastructure buildout, while competitive pressure broadened materially across labs and platforms. OpenAI closed a record $120B+ financing and then shelved its Sora app while ending its Disney licensing deal to refocus on coding tools, enterprise adoption, and a broader ChatGPT-led “super app.” It…

Markets sold off as Iran tensions and a closed Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent above $110, sending the Dow into correction territory and lifting volatility amid fading hopes for a resolution. The OECD warned on March 26 that U.S. inflation could rise to 4.2% in 2026 even as global growth holds at 2.9%, reinforcing the…

Markets opened on edge as the Fed voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, pointing to sticky inflation, mixed labor data, and Iran-war uncertainty, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that there is “effectively zero net job creation in the private sector”. January PCE met expectations at 2.8% headline and 3.1% core, while Q4 GDP…

A sharp drop in oil set the tone for a week shaped by shifting geopolitics, consumer resilience, and big-ticket corporate bets. Energy prices fell earlier in the week after President Trump signaled de-escalation with Iran and the G7 pointed to reserve readiness, sending Brent down 7.2% to $91.88, on Thursday, the IEA says the Iran…

February underscored the growing tension between rapid AI adoption and government, security, and consumer trust as agents went mainstream. OpenAI raised a record $110B at a ~$730B valuation (Amazon $50B, Nvidia $30B, SoftBank $30B) but drew backlash after signing a Department of War model-usage deal, with reported ChatGPT uninstalls up 295% and Claude briefly #1…

🌱Now Accepting Intern Applications for Spring 2025!Stepmark Partners is excited to welcome a new cohort of Spring Analysts beginning on March 16th. If you’re passionate about the intersection of AI and deal-making, we invite you to apply. To learn more, please email da@stepmark.ai. The United States entered open conflict with Iran as U.S. and Israeli strikes…